Coronavirus Advice From a Random American in Korea

There’s a reason casinos make money.  They fully trust in statistical probability and have a multitude of customers believing somehow they are an exception.  The house will pay no heed to any individual placing a single bet, winning, and walking away never to return.  There are more than enough who stay until their pockets are empty and others until their bank account is drained and credit cards maxed out.  Sadly, there are those who even stay at the table until they’ve lost their home or worse.

As for COVID-19, death is going to collect the house take.  There is nothing we can do about it.  The only way to reduce the human cost is by reducing the number of people with the virus.  Shutting down most of America is mitigating the crisis, but isn’t sustainable and is coming at a tremendous cost to her prosperity.  Ending the shutdown in totality isn’t the answer either.  We need to find a way to keep people out of the coronavirus casino.  The answer is actually simple, but hard to implement.  Korea still remains one of the best models.

Why was Korea able to keep borders open and business operating throughout the crisis?  Why did their schools reopen this week?  First, they implemented an identification, isolation, and contact tracing program,  preventing case numbers in most areas from ever becoming unmanageable, and effectively permitting daily life to continue with appropriate limitations.  They continue to aggressively work every identified case.   Yesterday, they completed 20,650 tests for yesterday’s 47 positive cases (439 negative cases for every positive).   They continue to maintain a testing capability in excess of their requirements because they’ve never let the total number get beyond control.  Korea is one of the most densely populated countries in the world and what works here should work anywhere.  For more detail, take a look at the Korean CDC’s daily press release.
 https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030

In Korea, extreme measures have been focused on the areas with the greatest problem (primarily the Daegu area and the airport). Areas without cases have correspondingly fewer restrictions. Given a rapid testing capability, many of our rural areas and sparsely populated states in America could quickly resume a semblance of normal life.  I believe most already have individuals who keep track of where everybody else has been and what they think they’ve been doing. ;)  Once the shutdown lowers the case number to a manageable level (many communities are already there) restrictions can be lessened appropriately in those cities, counties, and states.  Without the tools, they’ll continue entering the casino (at just a relatively slower rate of growth) and greatly risk overwhelming their irreplaceable health care heroes.

The second critical factor is protecting individuals when they go out in public.  As individuals, we can protect ourselves using common sense and basic hygiene appropriate for the environment we are living in (and we’ll continue to live in for the foreseeable future).  I was encouraged to see America’s shift in attitudes towards wearing masks.  It seems to be working in Asia. However, we need to go further.  Since N95 masks protect our health care professionals in close proximity to the most contagious cases, a member of the general public should be just as protected.  If everyone in public was wearing the best available masks, the contagious would be restrained and everyone without the virus would be reasonably protected.  I understand the urgency of distributing our limited supply to those on the front lines, but I have yet heard this question asked, “When will production of N95 masks be readily available to all Americans?”  I’m looking forward to FINALLY returning to my country and attending “Mask Day” at the ballpark!

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I currently have some free time to update my blog from 10 days ago.  I was in the wrong place at the wrong time last week and the coach benched me until 2 April.  I was wearing a mask, kept at least 6 feet from everyone, and used hand sanitizer when I got back in my car.  While my chance of catching the virus is extremely low (and I don’t have any symptoms), these are the rules we’re playing by.

For Korea, I’m encouraged by the Korean CDC data.  The country looks like it is well on the down side of the curve. Since 16 March, the number of individuals isolated with COVID-19 has dropped from 6,789 to 4,398 (further reducing the stress on the health care system).  Additionally, the number of patients being discharged continues to be greater than number of new cases.  They are capable of completing over 18,000 tests a day and aren’t using their full capability.  I read yesterday, they are even sending tests to America now.

With significant limitations, Korea has continued to stay in business.  They haven’t shut off visitors from China, Europe, and the US.  Of today’s new cases, 21 came from the airport.   Testing, contact tracing, disinfection, and isolation processes are working.  While the death rate has risen from ~1% to 1.59%, the rate reduction in overall infections has greatly limited the number of deaths.

I’ve done some reading on Germany and their low death rate .85% isn’t just luck.  They implemented an effective testing program early and have locked their country down.  No more than two people can meet.  If they were any stricter, they’d be missing out on the “Coronakids” boom expected next year ;)  Unfortunately, they can’t loosen up until their overall active numbers (and those of their neighbors are lower).

As for America, I don’t feel good about writing down what I believe.  While the death rate has only risen from 1.64% to 1.74%, the number of total cases has ballooned out of control, we’re well past where a testing and contact tracing methodology would work, and our health care system is in for a difficult time. My prayer, is we’re spared the grief of Italy and Spain.

Quickly cutting off travel from China and Europe bought us time, but the infection numbers have grown to the point where contact tracing isn’t feasible and lock-downs are the only option.  For example, Korea completed 15,028 tests today for 105 new cases.  America identified 17,412 new cases today. To achieve the same rate, we’d have to complete 2,492,000 tests in one day.  The president’s decision to push social distancing guidelines to 30 April is unavoidable.  After listening to a Bill Gates interview yesterday, I'm convinced a 15-day nationwide shutdown at the start would be also prudent.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Country	Total Cases	Deaths	Death Rate
USA	140,990	2,457	1.74%
Italy	97,689	10,779	11.03%
China	81,439	3,300	4.05%
Spain	80,110	6,803	8.49%
Germany	62,095	525	0.85%
France	40,174	2,606	1.74%
Iran	38,309	2,640	6.89%
UK	19,522	1,228	6.29%
Switzerland	14,829	300	2.02%
Netherlands	10,866	771	7.10%
Belgium	10,836	431	3.98%
S. Korea	9,583	152	1.59%

https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030

From March 19

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The odds are pretty low the government or media will listen to Coronavirus advice from some random American living in Korea, but I’ve been blessed with Freedom of Speech, a blog with 2 followers, and an ever present hope that something I write will someday go viral.  Plus, everyone who actually reads this post from start to finish will eventually find a package of toilet paper on a grocery store shelf near home. Now for the advice!

Instead of spinning the Coronavirus for political advantage, our media and politicians should work together on solving the crisis at hand.  They could be a tremendous force for good if they’d just focus everyone’s attention on how we can best pull together to stem the spread of the Coronavirus.  My advice is simple to say, but not so simple to implement.  America must rapidly take decisive steps to improve two simple metrics.

1.   The total number of COVID-19 tests completed daily.

2.   COVID-19 Death Rate - The number of deaths divided by the number of confirmed cases.

Testing is crucial in quickly identifying, isolating, and treating those infected.  Unfortunately, the United States is playing catch up in regards to testing.  Take a look at the Korean Center for Disease Control (KCDC) testing data for comparison later with the US:

https://www.cdc.go.kr/

[Table 1. Total confirmed and suspected cases]

Period (since 3 Jan)	Total	Tested positive				Being tested	Tested negative
		Confirmed	Discharged	Isolated	Deceased
As of 0:00 17 March (Tues)	286,716	8,320	1,401	6,838	81	17,291	261,105
As of 0:00 18 March (Wed)	295,647	8,413	1,540	6,789	84	16,346	270,888
Differences	+8,931	+93	+139	-49	+3	-945	+9,783

Korea has a capacity to complete 18,000 tests a day and aggressively follows up on the contacts of individuals testing positive.   While a total victory in this war of attrition isn’t possible, at risk individuals are being given a fighting chance.  The death rate (84/8,413) is slightly less than 1% and holding steady over time.  I’m also encouraged that the number of patients discharged has exceeded the number of new cases every day this week, reducing the stress on the health care system. 

Now look at America’s Center for Disease Control (CDC) test reporting page.

ttps://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/testing-in-us.html

I believe it’s time for several levels of CDC mid-level management to be moved (you can’t fire civil servants) to less important jobs.  They have a nice looking site, but the data is of little real value. The chart shows a current capacity to administer 4,000 tests a day, but the notes at the bottom are telling.  The CDS counts a test when they receive it, the public health labs when the test is given, and private labs aren’t even being tracked.  How many boxes are stacked up in the labs and how long have they been there?

Telling the public a million (or even a billion) test kits have been distributed only misleads the public.   A test kit is just swabs and some tubes to place them in.  The number of tests administered is a step up, but still misleading as is the date it arrives at the labs. A test isn’t of any value until the results are given to the individual, their doctor, and public health officials. 

Even if all 4,000 tests being reported were actually completed, the number isn’t sufficient to achieve Korea’s level of performance.  Based on the USA’s larger population, we’ll require the capability to complete ~115,000 tests a day.  The CDC needs to start publishing a valid test metric and the goal we must achieve to succeed.   Once we know what the goal is and how to measure it, the media can justly hold the politician’s feet to the fire.  How many tests were completed today?  How many will be completed tomorrow?  When are we going to achieve full capacity?

The death rate is a morbid but important statistic, because it measures the overall effectiveness of a country’s effort.  The lowest possible percentage is where everyone impacted receives the best possible treatment.  A higher number likely indicates inequities in treatment, health care systems and providers being stressed beyond there capability, or a significant number of unidentified carriers.  As of today, America's rate is 1.64% (9,464 cases/155 deaths).  I suspect a large part is due to unidentified cases, but that will quickly change if our health care system becomes overwhelmed.

An interesting article on death rates:

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-rate-by-country-current-fatalities-compared-to-cases-2020-3

“According to Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, COVID-19's mortality rate is probably around 1%, which is still about 10 times the flu's.”

Italy, Iran, and Spain illustrate what can happen if transmission rates get out of control and overwhelm the health care systems.  It would be unconscionable for any country to not give all its citizens a fighting chance.  My prayer is the unprecedented actions being taken worldwide will quickly stem the tragic loss of life inflicted by this pandemic.  Our local, state, and national leaders should judge their own performance on the results of the actions they take today, not what they did or didn’t do yesterday.  All I want to hear tomorrow is we completed a greater number of tests and the controllable portion of the death rate has been reduced and fallen below 1.64% There’ll be plenty of time to claim credit and affix blame after the crisis has passed.  #killthevirus

The Ghost House

Seeing this photo on the Internet last week brought back a fond memory of similar old house.  Hyesuk and I had only been married a few months when I left Korea to attend a school in Mississippi before embarking on a new assignment.  My beautiful young bride stayed behind for 4 months and continued working until I’d finished my course and established our household at Fort Meade Maryland.  After leaving Korea herself and spending a few days in California with my brother Gary and Uncle Jim, Hyesuk boarded a plane to our new home in Maryland.  I picked her up at the airport and we were almost home when I noticed a house somewhat more dilapidated than this one.  On impulse, I pulled into the driveway, shut off the engine, turned to Hyesuk and said, “Well…, Honey we’re home.”  After a few brief moments of gazing into her deer-in-the-headlights eyes, I started the car, put it in reverse, declared “Just kidding!”, and resumed driving the last few miles to our actual home.  Having been given a good dose of contrast, Hyesuk was more than pleased after arriving at our military housing and inspecting the amenities.  Over the next four years, we drove by the house many times (It was on the way to Joann Fabrics.) and Hyesuk, and eventually Bobby and Laura, would point it out as the “Ghost House” each time we’d pass.

Would our Founding Fathers Take a Knee?

Thomas Jefferson came to me in a dream last night, imploring me to buy a ticket for an NFL football game.  He told me to jump down on the field during the national anthem, fall to both knees, bow my head with both hands clasped tightly together and fervently pray to God for our country to turn from her wicked ways and to heal our land.

Shocked and taken somewhat aback by his request, I guardedly asked President Jefferson if he was coming to me from Heaven or Hell.   My whole heart agrees with his inspiring words, “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness,” but I’m somewhat troubled by what he wrote to his nephew Peter Carr, in 1787; "Question with boldness even the existence of a god;” Dream Jefferson’s reply was pointedly simple; “Should I compel you to conform to my beliefs, or you to direct mine, when God himself leaves it to us to freely choose.”

Moving on, I asked a more practical question, “Do you realize what will happen to me if I honor your request?”  Some will praise me for kneeling during the anthem, but soundly criticize me for having the audacity to pray in public.  The extreme might even call for me to be thrown in a lion’s den or fiery furnace.  Others would condemn me as unpatriotic and demand I leave the country for kneeling, but still post my picture alongside Tim Tebow for displaying my faith.  Aside from criticism, there would be a more tangible cost for my action.   An arrest would likely result in the suspension of my security clearance and loss of my job.  Before deciding, I awoke to the smell of coffee, and the sound of my sweet wife singing Korean hymns and moving furniture.

Retreating from the upheaval of “Furniture Moving Day” with a steaming cup of coffee to a quiet room, I browsed Facebook until a post from a fine Air Force Captain eerily requesting “dialogue and *civil* discourse” on the very subject of my dream motivated me to exercise my constitutional right of free speech.

As a military veteran and current civil servant, I have voluntarily accepted restrictions on my liberties, not out of blind nationalism, but from a sincere belief in the ideals our country was founded on and the freedoms we currently enjoy.   I took an oath to defend those freedoms and pray for the courage to keep my promise.  When the national anthem plays, I silently stand with my hand over my heart and show due respect to our flag.   Conversely, I’m deeply offended when others exercising their freedom to dissent is deemed an affront to my service.  Every prayer uttered, speech freely given, or assembly peacefully gathered honors my service regardless of whether I agree with the content or not.  Our military mirrors society, with a wide range of beliefs and opinions, and to imply we always stand together is wrong.  No one has the right to hack my voice or the views of those I serve alongside.  These thoughts are not something I’ve just come up with this morning.  I’ve pondered them for many years.

Several decades ago, while attending a military leadership course, I was given an unwelcome debate assignment to defend flag burning.  Fortunately, I never had to stand before an unfriendly audience as another subject was selected for the in-class debate.  However, the basic premise of the argument I was going to make, “Opportunity Cost” still influences the beliefs I hold today.

Opportunity cost is an economics term that refers to the value of what you have to give up in order to choose something else.   To better explain the concept, take a few moments and make a list of everything important in your home.   If your house was on fire and you could only escape with the first item on your list, the opportunity cost of your choice is the loss of everything else. While my retirement flag holds significant sentimental value to me, I wouldn’t think twice about saving my dog over it.  A flag can easily be replaced.  Today I’m asking you to make another list, including the flag and national anthem.  In our virtual fire, you’ll be able to keep both the flag/anthem and everything listed above.  Everything below them will be lost forever.  While I’m still struggling with where to place family and self, this is my example list:

1.   Freedom of Religion
2.   Freedom of Speech
3.   Freedom of Assembly
4.   Democratic Elections
5.   Freedom of the Press
6.   Due Process
7.   Freedom from unreasonable searches and seizures
8.   2^nd Amendment Right to Bear Arms
9.   Separation of Powers between Executive, Legislative, Judicial branches
10.   25^th Amendment
11.   Family
12.   Life (Self)
13.   Liberty
14.   Pursuit of Happiness
15.   Property rights
16.   Flag
17.   Anthem
18.   Pledge of Allegiance
19.   18^th Amendment
20.   Possessions

The flag and anthem are merely symbols representing our priceless rights and values and in themselves have nominal value in comparison to what they truly epitomize.  It’s tremendously ironic that allowing our flag to be burned diminishes none of the freedoms it represents, while preventing its destruction (or obligating patriotism) weakens the very freedoms countless patriots have died to defend.   If compelled by unconstitutional law, intimidation, or force to honor men or idols, we should neither stand nor kneel.  We should turn our backs.

The Cow Tipping Challenge

https://modernfarmer.com/2013/09/cow-tipping-mh-oytr-bullcrap/

Every so often, I see something on the Internet irks me so much I’m compelled to respond. Several years ago, (I’ve never claimed to respond quickly) I read an article (link above) by a Mr. Jake Swearingen disputing “Cow Tipping,”  a hallmark activity of my youth.  Those of you who know my brother Gary, will surely consider the plausibility of his founder claim (or at least being one of the early pioneers). Having been right beside him in the early days, I can’t recall anyone ever accomplishing the feat before us.  For the Millennials among us, imagine reading an article 40 years from now asserting your generation never consumed a single Tide pod or even the existence of something as temptingly easy as planking.   I’m guessing you’ll be overjoyed about creating a permanent record of your accomplishments in the cloud and will quickly task your virtual assistant to research, draft, and post a pointed response.

There will always be those who question whether man ever really landed on the moon, whether the president was actually born in America, the certainty of the impending ice age, or one of the crowning achievements of my generation, "Cow Tipping."  Today, technology is making it harder on the deniers.  Those of us with an adequate amount of common sense will quickly accept the photo above as positive planking proof.  While I never accepted the Tide pod challenge, and probably wouldn’t admit it if I did, some might say, “Kelly must have only had powder or liquid in the house.”   I’d beg to disagree.   Unlike a small minority of our generation who’ve somehow beaten the odds and survived, I like to think I’ve matured and only still  participate in low risk events absent of physical discomfort.

I’d never consider encouraging the younger generation to emulate the truly foolish members of my generation, but the following video shows we still have a few who are still overcoming the odds and remain with us.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-XM-Gbj2dPw

While I can’t imagine any circumstance where slapping a bear on the butt is a good idea, tipping a cow under the tutelage of an experienced hand, while somewhat risky, will produce a memorable life experience.  However, I would recommend anyone undertaking a cow tipping adventure be able to distinguish the difference between a cow and a bull and it’s always a good idea to inform the rancher beforehand.

Getting back to my original purpose of proving Mr. Swearingen wrong, I believe it’s worthwhile to refute a few of his key points for the benefit of those who haven’t yet experienced a successful tip and may still be a little skeptical.    In his article, Mr. Swearingen asserts cow tipping never existed because there isn’t a documented record on social media.  My abbreviated response is “duh!”   In the 1970s, social media was rotary phones connected to land lines (often shared).  While video technology was in its infancy, the cameras were large, didn’t work well in the dark, and priced well above the means of the usual cow tipping participants. 

Mr. Swearingen also paints an unrealistic scenario and cherry picks variables designed to support his supposed scientific proof.  His claim that cows don’t sleep standing up doesn’t account for the presence of cactus.  Would you be willing to lay down on a cactus plant?  Additionally, a quick Google search will show the average weight of a Jersey cow is considerably less than a Holstein.  Correct me if I’m wrong Gary, but in all our attempts I don’t remember ever encountering a single Holstein.  Perhaps the most significant misassumption, is his physical calculations are based on level ground.  Anyone who’s ever been in eastern Colorado can’t deny the ever-present wind.  Cows naturally seek sleep on the back side of hills to escape it.  Approaching the cow from the opposite side of hill is key to accomplishing the difficult task of approaching the cow undetected. Moreover, factor in a 10-30 degree slope and the probability of a couple of enthusiastic youths succeeding exponentially improves.

I'm somewhat disappointed in recent developments to automate the tip (above).  I'm sure the success rate is much higher, but at the unfortunate expense of most of the intangible benefits. 

It’s truly a shame when a generation neglects to pass on its best to those who follow.  For those of my generation who’ve experienced the thrill and personal gratification of tipping a cow, I challenge you to enlist the support of several of our youth, instruct them in the proper strategy/technique, and document your success on social media.  While the doubters will likely cry fabrication, a new cohort of believers will be established.

Demise of the Holiday Tree

Picture taken early November 2016

A seed somehow found its way into a crack in a lifeless concrete world.  Overcoming adversity, it sprouted, found sustenance and grew into this little tree.   I noticed it the first time I drove by, immediately seeing a picture worth taking and a metaphor worth celebrating.  Obviously, many others saw its worth.  The little tree was eclectically and excessively adorned with Christmas decorations.    Taking a picture would’ve required stopping, or turning around, and I just drove on.

The tree was on a road I traveled often and over the months I became more attached to it.  As Valentine’s Day approached, red hearts appeared.    On the 4^th of July, it was covered in patriotic symbols and decked out in red, white, and blue.    A few weeks before Thanksgiving, Hyesuk snapped this picture of the partially decorated tree as we drove by, capturing fall colors and a homemade turkey at the pinnacle.

A few days before this past Christmas, I’d committed myself to finally stopping and taking a proper picture.   My anticipation turned into confusion as I drove by the barren sidewalk.   The tree was gone.   As I continued on, many thoughts and questions went through my mind.  I’ve recreated a few of them today.  Did a malicious vandal destroy it just to hurt others?  Was it viewed as a safety hazard and removed to protect us?  Was the person who cut it down just doing their job?   Did someone threaten to take legal action because they didn’t agree with the expression of personal beliefs on public property?   Regardless of the reason, the tree was gone.

Remains of the tree's memorial on January 2, 2016

I viewed the little tree mostly as an interesting oddity.  Many others were significantly more attached and hurt by its loss.  A constantly changing memorial  soon appeared.  Some reacted with anger and protest.  I identified with a "NOT COOL DUDE! sign.  Some expressed their grief with candles and small tokens.

Picture taken January 2, 2016

Driving by on New Year’s Eve, I noticed this tree on the other side of the road. Unfortunately, the festive hat and most of the decorations were missing when we made a special trip for pictures.  Seeing the newly turned soil at the base sprouted the seed of hope motivating our visit.  Maybe the tree had triumphed again and just moved on to a better location.

Crossing the road to take pictures of the memorial, saw my small seed meet a predictable fate.

Exiting the mall where we'd parked, the ending for this blog was written.  My remaining thoughts will go unspoken.